When Do Voters Exit the Party System? Convergence in Poor Performance, Invalid Voting, and Outsider Support


Journal article


Lautaro Cella
Working Paper, 2026

Cite

Cite

APA   Click to copy
Cella, L. (2026). When Do Voters Exit the Party System? Convergence in Poor Performance, Invalid Voting, and Outsider Support. Working Paper.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “When Do Voters Exit the Party System? Convergence in Poor Performance, Invalid Voting, and Outsider Support.” Working Paper (2026).


MLA   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “When Do Voters Exit the Party System? Convergence in Poor Performance, Invalid Voting, and Outsider Support.” Working Paper, 2026.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{lautaro2026a,
  title = {When Do Voters Exit the Party System? Convergence in Poor Performance, Invalid Voting, and Outsider Support},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Working Paper},
  author = {Cella, Lautaro}
}

Abstract

A large body of research examines when voters hold incumbents accountable for poor performance. Most experimental studies, however, evaluate the incumbent's record in isolation, without asking what happens when the mainstream opposition has compiled an equally poor record of its own. To address this, I conducted pre-registered survey experiments in Argentina and Chile, simultaneously randomizing the performance of the mainstream incumbent and opposition in local elections across three dimensions—corruption, economic mismanagement, and public service provision—together with their ideological positions. When the mainstream opposition shares a poor performance record with the incumbent, voters are more likely to abandon the establishment altogether, increasing support for outsider candidates and invalid balloting, regardless of the ideological distance between incumbent and opposition. This pattern holds even among mainstream partisans.