Convergence in Poor Performance: Explaining Voter Support for Outsiders and Invalid Voting


Journal article


Lautaro Cella
Working Paper, 2026

Cite

Cite

APA   Click to copy
Cella, L. (2026). Convergence in Poor Performance: Explaining Voter Support for Outsiders and Invalid Voting. Working Paper.


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “Convergence in Poor Performance: Explaining Voter Support for Outsiders and Invalid Voting.” Working Paper (2026).


MLA   Click to copy
Cella, Lautaro. “Convergence in Poor Performance: Explaining Voter Support for Outsiders and Invalid Voting.” Working Paper, 2026.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{lautaro2026a,
  title = {Convergence in Poor Performance: Explaining Voter Support for Outsiders and Invalid Voting},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Working Paper},
  author = {Cella, Lautaro}
}

Abstract

Voters become discontented with established political parties when those parties converge on similar policy positions. Yet, even when parties differ ideologically, voters still punish the political establishment. Why is this so? To answer this question, I conceptualize support for outsiders and invalid voting as two forms of protest voting, ways citizens reject the establishment. I argue that convergence in poor performance, repeated and consecutive failures by ideologically distinct mainstream incumbents, drives these outcomes. I focus on three dimensions of performance: corruption, economic management, and public service provision. Using survey experiments in Argentina and Chile, I show that convergence in poor performance across these dimensions increases protest voting, regardless of policy differences. When only the incumbent performs poorly, voters are more likely to support the mainstream opposition.  Notably, voters punish convergence in poor performance more strongly than policy convergence, underscoring that support for mainstream parties requires not only distinct platforms but also competent governance.